Residents across the Caribbean are being urged to prepare early for what could be one of the most active hurricane seasons in recent memory. According to the latest forecast from local meteorologist Dale C. S. Destin of 268Weather, the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season is shaping up to be above normal, with a significant possibility of becoming super hyperactive.
Based on data up to 14 April, the forecast estimates 20 named storms (average: 14), 10 hurricanes (average: 7), 5 major hurricanes (average: 3), and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 195 (average: 123). Destin reports a 52% chance that the season could exceed an ACE of 223, placing it in the top 10% of seasons recorded between 1991 and 2020.
The expected increase in activity is being driven by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic. These conditions tend to provide more fuel for storm development and intensification.
However, the forecast does come with uncertainties. The tropical Atlantic may remain closer to normal than initially expected, and ENSO-neutral conditions—meaning no El Niño or La Niña—are also likely to persist. Additionally, forecasters are currently within the spring predictability barrier, a time when longer-range climate models are less reliable.
Despite these challenges, Destin’s outlook still strongly favours a busy season, particularly during the peak months of August to October.
According to the forecast, there is an 82% chance of an above-normal hurricane season, a 14% chance of a near-normal season, and a 4% chance of a below-normal season. The outlook also highlights a 55% chance of more than 19 named storms, a 43% chance of more than 11 hurricanes, and a 42% chance of more than 6 major hurricanes.
Major hurricanes—defined as Category 3 or stronger with sustained winds of at least 178 km/h (111 mph)—can be particularly devastating, especially to small island nations like Antigua and Barbuda.
Destin warns that even a single storm can have a lasting impact. “Even one storm can make a season memorable, especially for vulnerable islands in the Caribbean,” he noted.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from 1 June to 30 November, though storms can and do form earlier. The forecast will be updated monthly, with the next update due around 15 May.
