Political analyst Peter Wickham says former United Progressive Party (UPP) leader Harold Lovell stands a stronger chance of winning the All Saints West seat in the next general election, due by 2028, than in his past contests.

Lovell will face incumbent Agriculture Minister Anthony Smith, who defected from the UPP to the Antigua and Barbuda Labour Party (ABLP). Wickham said that Smith’s departure could work in Lovell’s favour if there is a swing away from the ABLP, though he cautioned the outcome depends on election timing and conditions.

Wickham expressed surprise at Lovell’s return to frontline politics after twice leading the UPP unsuccessfully, suggesting it could signal a bid to reclaim party leadership. He warned this might spark internal strife that could ultimately benefit the ABLP.

He added that Prime Minister Gaston Browne may see the potential loss of the seat as less damaging than the disruption Lovell’s comeback could cause within the opposition.