BULLETINTropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025500 PM AST Thu Oct 09 2025
…JERRY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THISEVENING AND TONIGHT……TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERNLEEWARD ISLANDS…
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-LOCATION…17.3N 60.6WABOUT 175 MI…285 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDSMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH…30 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1001 MB…29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
- Barbuda and Anguilla
- St. Barthelemy and St. Martin
- Sint Maarten
- Guadeloupe and the adjacent islands
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
- Antigua, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
- Saba and St. Eustatius
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions areexpected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions arepossible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands and theBritish and U.S. Virgin Islands should monitor the progress ofJerry.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitorproducts issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry waslocated near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 60.6 West. Jerry ismoving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A turntoward the northwest is expected by the evening, followed by aslightly slower northward motion on Friday and Saturday. On theforecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near thenorthern Leeward Islands this evening and tonight.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with highergusts. Little change in strength is expected through tomorrow,but slow strengthening is possible over the weekend.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km),mainly east of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————- Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the TropicalCyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO headerWTNT45 KNHC.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical stormwarning area and are possible in the watch area tonight andFriday morning.
RAINFALL: Through Friday, 4 to 6 inches of rain are expected acrossthe island of Barbuda. Elsewhere across the Leeward and VirginIslands, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected. This rainfall brings arisk of flash flooding, especially in urban areas and in steepterrain. For portions of Puerto Rico, moisture associated with Jerrycombined with local orographic effects may result in up to 2 to 4inches of rain, with isolated 6 inches possible.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash floodingassociated with Jerry, please see the National Weather Service stormtotal rainfall graphic, available athurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands,Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. These swellsare expected to spread toward the rest of the Greater Antilles overthe next couple of days, and are likely to cause life-threatening surfand rip current conditions. Please consult products from your localweather office.
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States, includingPuerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, can be found at:hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents
NEXT ADVISORY
————- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$Forecaster Cangialosi