The island-average rainfall for Antigua was near normal; it was 126.2 mm (4.97 in). Additionally, there was one 5-day wet spell at the V. C. Bird International Airport (VCBIA). Meanwhile, there was no 7-day dry spell.
The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for September indicates that conditions over the past 30 days were **normal** across Antigua. For the **3-month** period, from July to September, conditions ranged from **normal** in the southwestern to **moderately** **dry** in the rest of the island. Over the **6-month** period, from April to September, precipitation levels were generally **normal** island-wide, with **slightly** **wet** conditions observed in the southwest. Map 1 illustrates drought conditions across Antigua during the past 3 months, highlighting areas affected by short-term moderate drought.
We are currently experiencing a short-term drought spanning the past four months; hence, a **drought** **warning** is in effect. Conditions are forecast to improve by the end of January, though they are expected to return to within the normal range.
_Map_ _1._ _Antigua_ _Short-term_ _Drought_ _Conditions_
Drought Outlook
**Short** **Term** **Drought** **Long** **Term** **Drought**
Anticipated level of drought concern, based on the 6- month SPI for August 2025 to January 2026, is **Drought** **Watch** for moderate or worse 6-month short-term drought by the end of **January**.
Anticipated level of drought concern, based on the 12-month SPI for December 2024 to November 2025, is **No** **Concern** of moderate or worse **long-** **term** drought by the end of **November**.
Implications
- protect resources
- conserve and recycle water
- implement management plans
- release public service announcements
- last-minute infrastructural repairs and upgrades
- report impacts
**Note** **1** : Due to the limited available data for Barbuda, it cannot be determined whether the warning should also apply to that island; conditions are being monitored for any signs of water stress.
**Note** **2** : The SPI values were estimated for the V. C. Bird International Airport, Green Castle and Cobbs Cross Stations and the SPI forecast values were estimated from Antigua Rainfall Estimated Time Series.
**Key** **Terms:**
**Dry** **day:** a day with less than 1 mm of rainfall
**Dry** **spell:** a period of consecutive dry days.
**Short** **Term** **Drought:** Dry conditions lasting 1 to 6 consecutive months.
**Long-Term** **Drought:** Dry conditions persisting for more than 6 consecutive months.
**SPI:** https://rcc.cimh.edu.bb/spi-monitor/
**Moderate** **Drought:** Dry conditions for at least three consecutive months with SPI values of less than or equal to -0.8.
**Alert** **Level**
| **No** **Concern** | No concern for moderate or worse drought |
|---|---|
| **Drought** **Watch** | Moderate or worse drought possible |
| **Drought** **Warning** | Moderate or worse drought evolving |
| **Drought** **Emergency** | Moderate or worse drought of immediate concern |
Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service, in collaboration with the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), which hosts the WMO-designated Caribbean Regional Climate Center; and Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF).
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The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service (ABMS) is providing this information and data “as is,” and ABMS disclaims no warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will the ABMS be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this information and data
