Meteorological Service Warns Drought Emergency Could Grip Antigua by October
Antigua could face an islandwide drought emergency by the end of October as below-normal rainfall and prolonged dry conditions continue to affect the country, according to the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service’s latest Monthly Drought Bulletin. The outlook also warns that long-term drought conditions are expected to remain at emergency levels through the end of November if current trends continue.
The July 2026 bulletin, which assesses drought conditions at the end of June and provides forecasts for the three-, six- and 12-month periods ending in August, October and November, paints a worsening picture for Antigua despite several rainfall events during the month.
The Meteorological Service reported that the island received 40.4 millimetres (1.59 inches) of rainfall in June, an amount classified as below normal. During the month, Antigua recorded seven wet days and experienced a 14-day dry spell at V.C. Bird International Airport, underscoring the uneven distribution of rainfall.
According to the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), rainfall over the previous 30 days left Antigua slightly dry overall. However, conditions became increasingly severe when viewed over longer periods.
For the three-month period from April through June 2026, the northern region of Antigua experienced extremely dry conditions, while the remainder of the island was classified as moderately dry. Looking at the six-month period from January through June, eastern sections of the island were deemed extremely dry , with the rest of Antigua categorized as severely dry. The bulletin also found that long-term conditions covering July 2025 through June 2026 remained moderately dry across the island.
Forecasts indicate that the situation is likely to deteriorate further over the coming months.
Based on the three-month SPI forecast covering June through August, the Meteorological Service anticipates a Drought Emergency in northern Antigua by the end of August. The remainder of the island is expected to remain under a Drought Warning , indicating that moderate or worse drought conditions are continuing to develop.
The six-month outlook, covering May through October, is more concerning. It projects a Drought Emergency across the entire island by the end of October, indicating moderate or worse drought conditions islandwide.
The long-range outlook offers little relief. Based on the 12-month SPI forecast from December 2025 through November 2026, Antigua is expected to remain under a Drought Emergency by the end of November, signaling persistent long-term drought conditions.
The bulletin includes several recommendations for government agencies, utilities and the public to reduce the impact of worsening drought. These include issuing public service announcements, implementing drought management and response plans, enforcing water restrictions and water recycling measures, protecting water resources, repairing critical infrastructure and reporting drought-related impacts.
While the report focuses primarily on Antigua, the Meteorological Service said it remains unable to determine whether Barbuda is experiencing short-term drought because of limited observational data. However, satellite-estimated rainfall suggests conditions there are similar to those in Antigua. Officials said it remains uncertain whether drought warnings should also apply to Barbuda and that the island will continue to be monitored for signs of water stress.
The report explains that drought conditions are assessed using the Standardized Precipitation Index, a widely used indicator that measures rainfall deficits over different time periods. The bulletin defines short-term drought as dry conditions lasting between one and six consecutive months, while long-term drought refers to dry conditions persisting for more than six months. It also outlines four alert levels: No Concern , Drought Watch , Drought Warning , and Drought Emergency , the highest category, indicating moderate or worse drought requiring immediate attention.
The Monthly Drought Bulletin is produced by the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service in collaboration with the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology, which hosts the World Meteorological Organization-designated Caribbean Regional Climate Centre, and the Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF).
This article was originally published by Antigua News Room. Read the original article here: Antigua Forecast to Enter Islandwide Drought Emergency by October.
