A developing tropical system in the Gulf is expected to strengthen into the first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic season later this week, according to AccuWeather.
The forecasting company said the tropical rainstorm is becoming organized more quickly than initially expected, with conditions increasingly favorable for strengthening.
“The storm is already becoming better organized faster than expected, and the environment around it is becoming increasingly favorable for strengthening,” AccuWeather hurricane expert Nicholas Arman said.
AccuWeather forecasts the system to strengthen over the open Gulf and become Hurricane Isaias, a Category 1 hurricane, on Friday, Oct. 9.
The system is then expected to encounter stronger wind shear as it moves north, weakening before making landfall as a strong tropical storm near the Mississippi-Alabama border Saturday morning.
The forecast calls for particularly heavy rainfall across southern Alabama and Mississippi, where 8 to 12 inches could fall. AccuWeather said isolated rainfall totals could reach 25 inches near the landfall area.
Widespread wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph are also possible near the coast, with isolated gusts potentially reaching 100 mph.
Heavy rainfall is expected to spread north through parts of the Ohio Valley before shifting toward the Carolinas and southern Virginia. Forecasters warned of possible flooding, power outages, property damage and mudslides in higher elevations.
The system was already producing moderate rainfall Tuesday along Mexico’s Bay of Campeche coast.
The unusually late development comes during what has so far been a historically quiet Atlantic hurricane season. AccuWeather said strong wind shear associated with developing Super El Niño conditions has suppressed hurricane formation across much of the Atlantic.
If the system does not become a hurricane before Oct. 8, AccuWeather said 2026 would establish a new record for the latest first hurricane of an Atlantic season, surpassing a record dating to 1905.
The forecast system is developing far west of Antigua and Barbuda, in the Gulf, and the information provided by AccuWeather does not indicate a direct threat to Antigua and Barbuda.
Source: Antigua News Room First Hurricane of 2026 Atlantic Season Could Form in Gulf This Week.