The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Antigua, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:
- Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
- St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
- St. Barthelemy and St. Martin
- Sint Maarten
Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, should monitor the progress of Jerry. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 8:00 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 12.2 North, longitude 47.5 West. Jerry is moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h). A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the west-northwest is expected during the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, the core of the system is expected to be near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and Jerry is expected to become a hurricane within a day.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday, where Tropical Storm Watches have been issued.
RAINFALL: On Thursday, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected across the Leeward Islands due to Jerry, bringing a risk of flash flooding, especially in higher terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic at:? hurricanes.gov/graphics_al5.shtml?rainqpf
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are expected to reach the Leeward Islands on Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at:? hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents
NEXT ADVISORY
Next complete advisory at 11:00 PM AST.
Forecaster Beven