268Weather has revised its 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast downward as conditions increasingly point toward a quieter season.

The July 28 update forecasts 12 named storms, four hurricanes and two major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy index of 99. All figures have been reduced from the previous outlook.

According to forecaster Dale Destin, the shift is largely linked to the growing likelihood of a very strong El Niño developing during the peak months of the hurricane season.

However, the season still has nearly equal chances of ending above, near or below normal. Uncertainty remains over the development of El Niño and the extent of Saharan dust outbreaks, which could significantly affect tropical cyclone activity.

268Weather cautioned that a below-normal season does not mean communities face reduced danger, as a single landfalling hurricane can cause devastating damage.

Residents of Antigua and Barbuda and the wider Caribbean are being urged to remain prepared and vigilant, particularly from August through October, when nearly 90% of the season’s activity is expected.

The forecast uses observed and projected sea surface temperatures from several global climate models. Updates are issued monthly through August to reflect changing oceanic and atmospheric conditions.

Source: Antigua News Room 268Weather has revised its 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast downward.